秒词邦

参考消息网11月16日报道 11月15日，俄罗斯总统普京与德国总理朔尔茨时隔近两年再度通电话。俄罗斯《观点报》网站11月15日分析了朔尔茨为何给普京打电话。

报道称，德国政治学家亚历山大·拉尔说：“他们聊了一个小时。总的看来，对朔尔茨而言，比特朗普更早与普京交谈是一个原则问题。这样他就不仅作为德国领导人发声，而且表达了整个欧盟的意见。”

拉尔说：“欧洲依然参与其中。这很重要。欧盟内部对与俄罗斯对话的可能性有不同看法。斯洛伐克总理菲佐和匈牙利总理欧尔班主张外交解决，而其他一些国家则坚决反对这种做法。”

这位专家说：“有些人可能会认为朔尔茨的行为是对欧盟利益的背叛。然而，德国总理必须将自己的名字写入‘维和人员’阵营。他在选举中的主要对手默茨是继续冲突的坚定支持者。”

拉尔说：“但朔尔茨也不能忽视布鲁塞尔、巴黎和乌克兰的立场。当然，这个因素也影响了整个谈话。通话进行了，这本身已经是一个很大的成功，使我们能够谈论解决冲突的可能性。但未来还有很多事情要做。”

《全球政治中的俄罗斯》双月刊主编卢基扬诺夫认为，通话意味着与克里姆林宫沟通的必要性再次得到承认，但意义也仅限于此，因为俄罗斯总统与欧洲领导人的接触不会有实质性内容。即使走到认真谈论和平协议的时候，更具意义的也是莫斯科、华盛顿以及作为直接当事方的基辅的意见。

这位专家指出，具有典型性的是，朔尔茨是在美国立场已经明显将发生重大变化的时候打电话的。

他说：“要做出欧洲也有能力主动作为的样子。但在美国提出某些方案之前，欧盟没有什么可提供的，因此欧盟国家领导人在与普京的通话中除了重复以前的口号外，不会有什么内容。”

报道称，德国问题专家伊万·库兹明认为，莫斯科和柏林高层近两年来首次交换意见，这是和平解决冲突道路上虽然不大却重要的一步，但也不必高估。

他说，对话之所以成为可能，是因为一系列国内外政治因素迫使德国在西方国家中要提早采取主动。一方面，特朗普在美国大选中的胜利对德国来说是一个冲击。另一方面，朔尔茨必须在即将到来的选举前获得更多认同。（编译/魏良磊）

延伸阅读

一觉醒来，德国先下手为强

一觉醒来，德国先下手为强了。

既然特朗普已经当选美国总统，他迟早会和普京通话；反俄联盟出现裂缝，自诩欧洲一哥的马克龙，肯定也会很快和普京沟通。

德国索性一不做二不休，11月15日，总理朔尔茨主动给普京打了电话。

算起来，这还是2022年10月以后，两人间的第一个电话。

过去的两年，德国和俄罗斯关系，跌入冷战以来最低谷，油气管道被炸了，制裁不断升级，关系一度还不错的两个欧洲大国，几乎老死不相往来。

但两年后，因为特朗普当选，情况突然出现了新变化。

总跟在美国后面亦步亦趋的德国，总是让马克龙冲在前面的朔尔茨，居然先采取了行动。

当然，毕竟是两年来第一个电话，双方谈得还比较严肃。

按照德方的通报，在和普京通话中，朔尔茨谴责了“俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略战争”，要求俄罗斯从乌克兰撤军，并重申德国对乌克兰的持续支持。

朔尔茨的发言人说：“他（朔尔茨）强调了德国坚定不移的决心，只要有必要，就会支持乌克兰抵御俄罗斯的侵略。”

俄乌冲突爆发后，美国和德国是乌克兰最大的支持者。美国是最主要的军火供应商，德国则提供了大量资金，至少在150亿欧元，甚至更多。

在一小时的通话中，朔尔茨还警告普京，朝鲜军队在俄参加作战，被认为冲突的严重升级和扩大。

此前，乌克兰指控，目前朝鲜在俄有大概1.1万士兵，其中一些人已经部署到库尔斯克地区，并和乌军发生交火。

朔尔茨态度很强硬。

看披露的一张照片，打电话时，他旁边还有两个助手，大家神情都很严肃。

朔尔茨打电话时旁边还有两个助手

俄罗斯方面怎么通报？

俄罗斯说，这次通话是朔尔茨主动提出的。

对方主动打来电话，普京也就没有拒绝。

要知道，就在前几天，普京还抱怨，“西方国家领导人在某个阶段几乎每周都给我打电话，然后突然停止了……”

在电话中，普京告诉朔尔茨，任何结束乌克兰战争的协议，都必须考虑到俄罗斯的安全利益，并反映 “新的领土现实”。

普京还告诉朔尔茨，如果德国感兴趣，俄罗斯愿意考虑能源交易。

德国以前严重依赖俄罗斯天然气，但管道被炸后，直接运输就停止了。后果也是很严重的，德国不得不买更贵的美国液化天然气，这直接增加了德国人的开支，并损害了德国产品的竞争力。

现在，欧洲寒冷的冬天又来了。

感觉这更多是一次试探性的接触，两人小心翼翼，各说各话。电话本身比电话内容更引人注目。

但最生气的，毫无疑问就是泽连斯基。

前脚朔尔茨刚挂掉和普京的电话，后脚泽连斯基就在视频里发飙痛骂。

他指责朔尔茨的这个电话，其实是打开了一个“潘多拉魔盒”。

“这正是普京长期以来一直想要的：对他来说，削弱对他的和俄罗斯的孤立，以及进行不会有任何结果的谈判，这非常重要。”泽连斯基说，继续指责，“过去几十年，他一直这样做。”

但现在的泽连斯基，阻止不了朔尔茨。

估计马克龙也大吃一惊，朔尔茨这次竟然走到我前面去了。

朔尔茨和普京会晤

为什么？

我总觉得，德国人也在反思，必须先下手为强了。

1，前面说了，特朗普即将上台。别忘了，特朗普竞选时就自夸：在24小时内，他就能结束俄乌冲突。美国对乌克兰政策将发生急转，德国不能无动于衷，必须抢在美国前面，先和普京接触。

2，红绿灯联盟已垮台，德国马上就要大选，朔尔茨面临巨大的党内压力，不排除会落选。在落选之前，努力搏一把，原先想做而不敢做的事情，豁出去也就做了。于是，主动给普京打电话，展现德国的影响力，也显示自己的外交决断力。

3，更重要的，还是朔尔茨看到了德国民意的变化。对于援助乌克兰，德国人已经很疲累，如果特朗普拒绝援助，那所有的包袱，就甩到欧洲人身上，但首先在德国人身上。德国承担不起，民意更会急剧反转，朔尔茨必须破局。

毕竟，欧洲和平，对德国利益重大。

所以，哪怕鸡同鸭讲，哪怕被泽连斯基痛骂背叛，朔尔茨还是主动给普京打了电话。

坚冰正在被打破，反俄同盟开始出现裂缝。

看新闻报道，朔尔茨和普京都表示，将继续保持接触，那意味着，以后两人还会继续打电话。

欧洲和世界地缘政治正在发生重大变化。

哦，最后说另一个先下手的故事。

上次特朗普当选后，日本首相安倍晋三，立刻就坐上飞机，去了纽约特朗普大厦，拜会还没上任的特朗普。

这一次，轮不到日本了。

阿根廷总统米莱捷足先登。

在海湖庄园特朗普的晚宴上，他和特朗普、马斯克等亲密互动。兴奋之下，米莱更是手舞足蹈，跳起了特朗普标志性的舞蹈动作。

还有，米莱还撤回了去阿塞拜疆巴库的气候谈判代表团。看媒体报道，他和特朗普打算联袂退出《巴黎协定》。

这个世界，确实大变了！

翻译：

Reference news network reported on November 16 that on November 15, Russian president Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Scholz called again after nearly two years. On November 15, the website of the Russian "Opinion newspaper" analyzed why Scholz called Putin.

German political scientist Alexander Lahr said: "They talked for an hour. Overall, for Scholz, talking to Putin before Trump is a matter of principle. In this way he will speak not only as a German leader, but as the whole of the European Union."

"Europe is still involved," Lall said. This is important. There are different views within the EU about the possibility of dialogue with Russia. "Slovak Prime Minister Fico and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban advocate a diplomatic solution, while some other countries are firmly opposed to such an approach."

The expert said: "Some may see Scholz's actions as a betrayal of EU interests. However, the German chancellor must put her name in the 'peacekeepers' camp. His main opponent in the election, Merz, is a strong supporter of continuing the conflict."

"But Scholz cannot ignore the positions of Brussels, Paris and Ukraine. Of course, this factor also influenced the whole conversation. The call took place, which in itself was already a great success and enabled us to talk about the possibility of resolving the conflict. But there's a lot more to come."

Mr. Lukyanov, editor of the bimonthly Russia in global Politics, said the call meant that the need to communicate with the Kremlin was once again recognized, but only so much, because the Russian president's contacts with European leaders would not be substantive. Even when it comes to serious talk of a peace deal, what matters more are the opinions of Moscow, Washington and, as a direct party, Kiev.

Characteristically, the expert noted, Scholz made the call at a time when it was already clear that the US position was about to change significantly.

"Make it look like Europe is also capable of taking the initiative. But until the United States comes up with something, the EU has nothing to offer, so EU leaders will have little to offer in their phone call with Putin other than repeating previous slogans."

According to German expert Ivan Kuzmin, the first high-level exchange of views between Moscow and Berlin in nearly two years is a small but important step on the road to a peaceful resolution of the conflict, but it should not be overestimated.

He said the dialogue was possible because a series of domestic and foreign political factors forced Germany to take an early initiative among Western countries. On the one hand, Trump's victory in the US election is a shock for Germany. Scholz, on the other hand, must gain more acceptance before the upcoming elections. (Compiled/Wei Lianglei)

Extended reading

I woke up, and Germany struck first

I woke up, and Germany had beaten me to it.

Now that Trump has been elected president of the United States, he will speak to Putin sooner or later; There are cracks in the anti-Russian alliance, and Macron, who describes himself as Europe's first brother, is sure to communicate with Putin soon.

On November 15, Chancellor Scholz took the initiative to call Putin.

This is the first phone call between the two since October 2022.

In the past two years, relations between Germany and Russia have plunged to their lowest point since the Cold War, with oil and gas pipelines being bombed, sanctions escalating, and the two European powers, once on good terms, virtually cut off from each other.

But two years later, with Trump's election, things suddenly changed.

Germany, which always follows behind the United States, and Scholz, who always lets Macron rush ahead, actually took action first.

Of course, after all, it was the first phone call in two years, and the two sides talked more seriously.

In his call with Mr. Putin, Mr. Scholz condemned "Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine," demanded that Russia withdraw its troops from Ukraine and reiterated Germany's continued support for Ukraine, according to a German briefing.

"He [Scholz] stressed Germany's unwavering determination to support Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression for as long as necessary," Scholz's spokesman said.

Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and Germany have been the biggest supporters of Ukraine. The United States is the main supplier of arms, and Germany has provided a lot of money, at least 15 billion euros, and possibly more.

During the one-hour call, Scholz also warned Putin that the presence of North Korean troops in Russia is considered a serious escalation and expansion of the conflict.

Earlier, Ukraine alleged that North Korea currently has about 11,000 soldiers in Russia, some of whom have been deployed to the Kursk region and exchanged fire with Ukrainian forces.

Scholz was tough.

Look at the disclosure of a photo, when he called, there were two assistants beside him, everyone looked very serious.

Scholz was on the phone with two assistants

What did the Russian side tell you?

Russia says the call was initiated by Scholz.

When the caller called, Putin did not refuse.

Just the other day, Putin complained that "Western leaders were calling me almost every week at one stage and then suddenly stopped..."

During the call, Putin told Scholz that any agreement to end the war in Ukraine must take into account Russia's security interests and reflect "new territorial realities."

Putin also told Scholz that Russia is willing to consider energy deals if Germany is interested.

Germany used to rely heavily on Russian gas, but direct shipments stopped after the pipeline was bombed. The consequences are also serious: Germany has to buy more expensive American LNG, which directly increases the cost of Germans and hurts the competitiveness of German products.

Now, Europe's cold winter is coming again.

It felt like more of a tentative encounter, and the two men were wary of each other's words. The call itself is more compelling than its content.

But the angriest, no doubt, was Zelensky.

As soon as the front foot Scholz hung up the phone with Putin, the back foot Zelensky went on a video rant.

He accused Scholz of opening a "Pandora's box" with the call.

"This is exactly what Putin has wanted for a long time: it's very important for him to weaken the isolation of himself and Russia and to engage in negotiations that are going nowhere." Zelensky said, continuing the accusation, "He has been doing this for the past decades."

But Zelensky, now, can't stop Scholz.

I think Macron was also surprised that Scholz actually walked in front of me this time.

Scholz and Putin meet

Why?

I always feel that the Germans are also reflecting that they must strike first.

1. As I said before, Trump is coming to power. After all, Trump's campaign boasted that in 24 hours he would end the conflict with Ukraine. The United States will take a sharp turn in its policy toward Ukraine, and Germany cannot remain indifferent. It must reach out to Putin before the United States does.

2, the traffic light alliance has collapsed, Germany is about to go to the general election, Scholz is facing huge pressure within the party, does not rule out losing the election. Before losing the election, try hard, originally wanted to do but did not dare to do things, go out to do it. So, I took the initiative to call Putin, to show Germany's influence, but also to show their diplomatic decisiveness.

3. More importantly, Scholz saw a shift in German public opinion. The Germans are already tired of helping Ukraine, and if Trump refuses to help, all the burden will fall on the Europeans, but first on the Germans. Germany cannot afford it, the polls will turn sharply, and Scholz will have to break.

After all, Germany has a vital interest in a peaceful Europe.

So, even after talking to each other, even after Zelensky lashed out at him for betrayal, Scholz took the initiative to call Putin.

The ice is breaking, and cracks are beginning to appear in the anti-Russian alliance.

Reading news reports, Scholz and Putin both said that they would continue to maintain contact, which means that the two will continue to call in the future.

Major changes are taking place in European and world geopolitics.

Oh, and finally, another first strike story.

After Trump was elected last time, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe immediately got on a plane and went to Trump Tower in New York to pay a visit to Trump before he took office.

This time, it's not Japan's turn.

Argentine President Mille got there first.

At Trump's dinner at Mar-a-Lago, he interacted closely with Trump, Musk and others. In excitement, Milley even danced, doing one of Trump's signature dance moves.

Milley also withdrew his delegation to the climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan. Read media reports, he and Trump plan to jointly withdraw from the Paris Agreement.

The world has really changed!

句子分析：

1.

句子成分分析：

[During the one-hour call], Scholz also warned Putin | that the presence (of North Korean troops (in Russia)) is considered a serious escalation and expansion (of the conflict).

句子语法结构详解：

* warned 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* Putin 为间接宾语。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* considered 为谓语，采用一般现在时和被动语态。
* is 为助动词。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

2.

句子成分分析：

[Earlier], Ukraine alleged | that North Korea currently has about 11,000 soldiers [in Russia, (some of whom have been deployed [to the Kursk region] and exchanged fire [with Ukrainian forces])].

句子语法结构详解：

(has 为 have 的第三人称单数形式。earlier 为 early 的比较级形式)

* alleged 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* has 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* some 开头为非限制性定语从句。
* deployed 为谓语，采用现在完成时和被动语态。
* exchanged 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* some 为不定代词。have, been 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

3.

句子成分分析：

The consequences are [also] serious: Germany has to buy more expensive American LNG, (which directly increases the cost (of Germans) and hurts the competitiveness (of German products)).

句子语法结构详解：

(has 为 have 的第三人称单数形式。)

* are 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* serious 为形容词作表语。
* buy 为谓语。
* which 为关系代词，引导非限制性定语从句。
* increases 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* hurts 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* has to 为情态动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

4.

句子成分分析：

"This is [exactly] | what Putin has wanted for a long time: it's very important for him to weaken the isolation (of himself and Russia) and to engage in negotiations (that are going [nowhere])."

句子语法结构详解：

(it's = it is)

* 第1个 is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* what 为关系代词，引导表语从句。
* wanted 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* it 为先行主语，代表后移的不定式。
* 第2个 is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* important 为形容词作表语。
* for him to weaken 为不定式。for him 为不定式的逻辑主语。
* to engage 为不定式。
* that 为关系代词，引导定语从句。
* going 为谓语，采用现在进行时。
* him 为人称代词宾格。himself 为自身代词。this 为指示代词。has, are 为助动词。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

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