业内人士：疯抢国债，也是对经济的“唱空”

今年以来我国债券市场持续火热，但是潜在风险不容小觑。业内专家多次提示，债市不会永远上涨，当前市场反转的风险不断增大。

对于债市风险，央行正从喊话转向行动。从4月开始，央行就开始提醒市场“不要炒国债”；7月1日，央行宣布将于近期面向部分一级交易商开展国债借入操作，并表示卖出国债操作正推进落地。

“这次公告表明，央行会用实际行动来告诉市场，国债价格会降。国债市场存在价格下降预期，未来运行就会更平稳。”光大证券固收首席分析师张旭对《金融时报》记者解释。

多位受访专家表示，央行公告借入国债并卖出，是保汇率、稳预期的体现。国债买卖是货币政策框架调整的有机组成部分，有利于更好地发挥利率调控机制作用。

绝非量化宽松

央行买卖国债定位于拓宽基础货币投放渠道

实际上，近几个月以来，市场对央行买卖国债一直保持高度关注。

如何理解这一操作？业内人士提示市场注意，央行买卖国债定位于拓宽基础货币投放渠道，绝不是要搞量化宽松（QE）。

从国际经验看，发达经济体央行搞量化宽松往往有自身阶段背景。通常是在危机冲击下，持续实施宽松货币政策直至面临零利率下限约束后，国债市场仍流动性较差，缺少买盘而抛售力量很强，价格渠道传导不畅，央行通常会诉诸非传统货币政策，其中就包括量化宽松（中央银行大规模购买国债、商业票据等）。比如2008年国际金融危机、2020年新冠疫情冲击后，发达经济体央行普遍将宽松货币政策用到极致，推出量化宽松政策，向市场提供极度充裕的流动性。

而回看我国情况，目前货币政策仍有充足空间，财政状况健康可持续，并不需要实施QE。据仲量联 行 大中华区首席经济学家及研究部总监庞溟分析，我国经济保持回升向好态势，金融机构总体保持健康稳定，稳健的货币政策下尚未面临零利率下限约束，国债市场认购和投资热情颇高，一定程度上还有“资产荒”迹象，不存在推出量化宽松的合理性和必要性，不必把作为常规操作的国债买卖，与量化宽松画等号。

为何选择推进“卖出”操作？

对于央行为何推进国债卖出操作，有业内人士解释，此举有利于平衡好供需的时间错位问题，并更好地发挥利率调控机制作用。

“央行一直表示买卖国债操作是双向的，既有买也有卖。”该业内人士分析，短期央行对国债买卖的探索可能以卖出操作为主，这与近期不断走低的国债收益率有关。央行有可能通过借入国债，然后再在二级市场卖出，以达到维持正常收益率曲线的目的。

具体来看，这种操作实际上释放出了存量长债，短期内会形成相对更多的供给，对二级市场债券供求有实实在在的影响；可视为是未来供给的提前释放，一定程度上缓解了市场上反映的长期国债发行偏慢问题。

除了平衡供需，在张旭看来，央行国债买卖是货币政策框架调整的有机组成部分，有利于更好地发挥利率调控机制作用。他表示，未来央行更多是以调控短端利率为主，逐步理顺由短及长的传导关系，通过短期政策利率引导长期市场利率，从而形成正常向上倾斜的收益率曲线。将二级市场国债买卖纳入货币政策工具箱，对于更好地实现价格调控是非常重要的。

对于长债利率，张旭认为，当前长债利率已处历史低位，未来跟随降息下行空间有限。“今年以来30年、50年期国债收益率先后跌破过2.5%，整个国债收益率曲线延续下移态势。”他表示，当前长债利率明显超调，未来降息 降的 也只能是实体经济的综合融资成本，不代表处于低位的长债利率也要跟随下行。

“央行也明确表态要保持正常向上倾斜的长债收益率曲线，两者是会统筹考虑的。”亦有业内人士解释，如果市场参与者将降息视为对长债利率下行预期的印证，将会形成新一轮长债利率下行压力，带来预期与长端利率之间的螺旋下行循环。

此外，从保汇率、稳预期的角度，业内人士解释，机构疯抢国债，等于预期以后利率越来越低，说不定像日本那样进入长期低利率时代，基本上就是在唱空人民币，也是在做空中国经济，加大了资金流出压力。

“美国降息时间表还有不确定性，资本市场表现仍然较好，大量美元回流美国，美元较为强势。亚洲各国都在打一场看不见的汇率保卫战，防范1997年亚洲金融危机再现。”庞溟对《金融时报》记者进一步分析，国债收益率是资产定价之锚，会直接影响银行利率；国债价格过高，意味着收益率太低，未来利率就不可能提高。

当然，维护债市平稳运行需要多管齐下，发挥政策合力。“央行已经多次提示相关风险了，未来还需平衡好政府债券发行节奏、提升金融机构风险管理能力、加强投资者教育、落实好监管制度等。”庞溟告诉记者。

Industry insiders: Looting for treasury bond is also "empty" for the economy

Since this year, China's bond market has continued to be hot, but the potential risks should not be underestimated. industry experts have repeatedly pointed out that the bond market will not rise forever, and the risk of market reversal is constantly increasing.

The central bank is shifting from shouting to taking action regarding bond market risks. Since April, the central bank has reminded the market not to speculate on treasury bond; On July 1, the People's Bank of China announced that it would launch treasury bond borrowing operations for some primary dealers in the near future, and said that the operation of selling treasury bond was advancing.

"This announcement shows that the central bank will use practical actions to tell the market that the price of treasury bond will fall. There is an expectation of price decline in the treasury bond market, and the future operation will be more stable." Zhang Xu, chief analyst of Everbright Securities Fixed Income, explained to the financial Times reporter.

Many experts interviewed said that the announcement of the central bank to borrow and sell treasury bond is a reflection of maintaining the exchange rate and stabilizing expectations. The trading of treasury bond is an integral part of the adjustment of monetary policy framework, which is conducive to better playing the role of interest rate regulation mechanism.

Not quantitative easing at all

The central bank's purchase and sale of treasury bond is positioned to broaden the channel for basic money supply

In fact, in recent months, the market has been paying close attention to the purchase and sale of treasury bond by the central bank.

How to understand this operation? The insiders reminded the market that the central bank's purchase and sale of treasury bond is aimed at broadening the channel for basic money supply, and is not about quantitative easing (QE).

From international experience, central banks in developed economies often have their own stage background when engaging in quantitative easing. Generally, under the impact of the crisis, the treasury bond market is still relatively illiquid, lacking of buying power and strong selling power, and the price channel transmission is not smooth. The central bank usually resort to non-traditional monetary policies, including quantitative easing (the central bank buys treasury bond and commercial paper on a large scale). For example, after the impact of the international financial crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 in 2020, the central banks of developed economies generally took the loose monetary policy to the extreme and launched quantitative easing policies to provide the market with extremely abundant liquidity.

Looking back at the situation in our country, there is still ample room for monetary policy, and the fiscal situation is healthy and sustainable, so there is no need to implement QE. according to Pang Ming, Chief Economist and director of Research department of Jones Lang LaSalle in Greater China, China's economy has kept recovering, financial institutions have generally kept healthy and stable, and have not yet faced the constraint of zero interest rate floor under the prudent monetary policy. treasury bond bond market subscription and investment are quite enthusiastic, and to some extent there are signs of "asset shortage". There is no rationality and necessity to launch quantitative easing, and it is unnecessary to equate treasury bond bond trading as a routine operation with quantitative easing.

Why choose to promote the 'sell' operation?

As for why the Central Bank promoted the sale of treasury bond, some insiders explained that this would help balance the time dislocation between supply and demand, and better play the role of interest rate regulation mechanism.

"The central bank has always said that the operation of buying and selling treasury bond is two-way, both buying and selling." According to the analysis of the insiders, the short-term exploration of treasury bond trading by the central bank may focus on selling operations, which is related to the recently declining treasury bond yield. It is possible for the central bank to maintain the normal yield curve by borrowing treasury bond and then selling them in the secondary market.

Specifically, this operation actually releases existing long-term bonds, which will generate relatively more supply in the short term and have a tangible impact on the supply and demand of bonds in the secondary market; It can be seen as the early release of future supply, which to some extent alleviates the slow issuance of long-term treasury bond reflected in the market.

In addition to balancing supply and demand, in Zhang Xu's view, the purchase and sale of central bank treasury bond is an integral part of the adjustment of monetary policy framework, which is conducive to better playing the role of interest rate regulation mechanism. He stated that in the future, the central bank will focus more on regulating short-term interest rates, gradually streamlining the transmission relationship from short to long, guiding long-term market interest rates through short-term policy rates, and thus forming a normal upward sloping yield curve. It is very important to bring the purchase and sale of treasury bond in the secondary market into the monetary policy toolbox for better price regulation.

Regarding the long-term bond interest rate, Zhang Xu believes that the current long-term bond interest rate is at a historical low, and the downward space for future interest rate cuts is limited. "Since this year, the yield of 30-year and 50-year treasury bond has successively fallen below 2.5%, and the yield curve of the entire treasury bond continues to move downward." He said that the current interest rate of long-term bonds is significantly overshoot, and the future interest rate reduction can only be the comprehensive financing cost of the real economy, which does not mean that the low long-term bond interest rate should also follow the downward trend.

The central bank has also made it clear that it will maintain a normal upward sloping long-term bond yield curve, and the two will be considered in a coordinated manner. Industry insiders have also explained that if market participants see the interest rate cut as a confirmation of the expectation of a downward trend in long-term bond rates, it will create a new round of downward pressure on long-term bond rates, bringing about a spiral downward cycle between expectations and long-term interest rates.

In addition, from the perspective of maintaining the exchange rate and stabilizing expectations, the insiders explained that the agencies' crazy scramble for treasury bond means that the interest rate is expected to be lower and lower. Maybe, like Japan, it has entered the era of long-term low interest rates, which is basically short of the RMB, and also short the Chinese economy, increasing the pressure on capital outflows.

"The schedule of interest rate reduction in the United States is still uncertain, the capital market performance is still good, a large number of dollars return to the United States, and the dollar is relatively strong. Asian countries are fighting an invisible exchange rate defense war to prevent the recurrence of the Asian financial crisis in 1997." Pang Ming further analyzed the reporter of the Financial Times, and found that the yield of treasury bond is the anchor of asset pricing, which will directly affect bank interest rates; If the price of treasury bond is too high, it means that the yield is too low, and the future interest rate cannot be raised.

Of course, maintaining the stable operation of the bond market requires a multi pronged approach and leveraging policy synergy. The central bank has repeatedly warned about relevant risks, and in the future, it is necessary to balance the pace of government bond issuance, enhance the risk management capabilities of financial institutions, strengthen investor education, and implement regulatory systems, "Pang Ming told reporters.

句子成分分析：(划分说明)  提示：框中标识可点击

[In addition], [from the perspective (of maintaining the exchange rate andstabilizing expectations)], the insiders explained | that the agencies' crazyscramble (for treasury bond) means | that the interest rate is expected to belower and lower.

句子语法结构详解：

(lower 为 low 的比较级形式)

* maintaining 为动名词，作介词宾语。
* stabilizing 为动名词。
* explained 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* 第1个 that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* means 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* 第2个 that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* expected 为谓语，采用一般现在时和被动语态。
* to be 为不定式，作主语补足语。
* be 为系动词。
* 第1个 low 为形容词作表语。
* is 为助动词。agencies' 为名词所有格。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子成分分析：(划分说明)  提示：框中标识可点击

The central bank has [repeatedly] warned about relevant risks, and in the future, || it is necessary to balance the pace (of government bond issuance), enhancethe risk management capabilities (of financial institutions), strengthen investoreducation, and implement regulatory systems, || "Pang Ming told reporters.

句子语法结构详解：

(told 为 tell 的过去式。)

* warned 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* it 为先行主语，代表后移的不定式。
* is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* necessary 为形容词作表语。
* to balance 为不定式。
* enhance 为谓语。
* strengthen 为谓语。
* implement 为谓语。
* Pang Ming 开头为陈述句。
* told 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* has 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

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