“无人驾驶的网约车，学会了别车”

中国哪里开车最野？是变道不爱打转向灯的苏 E？还是走哪都爱开远光灯的浙 J？从交通事故数据看，是湖北。

根据最新的《中国交通年鉴》，2021 年湖北每十万辆民用车里，交通事故数是 285.2 起，位列各省份第一，而全国的均值是 83.6 起。

在社交媒体上，也流传着各类湖北人开车生猛的故事。比如武汉的 521 路公交车，本世纪初就曾传出车速快到扶手被掰弯、轮胎摩擦到起火的事迹。甚至 20 年后，湖北广播电视台的记者还去实地探访了一下。

但如今，连火车都跑赢过的武汉老司机们，不少都在抱怨自己被自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi）磨炼脾气：

“萝卜想变道，没人让它，它就一直等着，导致后面堵了好长。”

“沌口的早高峰，经常就是因为苕萝卜导致的堵车。”

武汉人口中的“苕萝卜”，源自自动驾驶出行服务品牌“萝卜快跑”，而“苕”这个字，是武汉市民给它加的。在湖北话里，苕作形容词时，是“傻”的意思。

和很多人印象中的无人汽车尚在车少人稀的郊区测试中不同，在武汉，市民已经能在城区像叫网约车一样，打到自动驾驶出租车了。据《长江日报》今年年初的报道，Robotaxi 在武汉的测试范围已覆盖 12 个行政区、触达人口超 770 万，江城已是目前“全球最大的自动驾驶出行服务区”。

另一件让人倍感意外的事，是武汉街头已有不少 Robotaxi 的主驾上已没有安全员了，而是改成远程监控车辆的运行。

只是，当前的自动驾驶技术，还没达到无往不利的程度。例如在狭窄道路上碰上会车，一些自动驾驶系统就有点不知所措了，只能采取停下等对方先通过的解决策略。但当对向车辆也是 Robotaxi 时，两辆车就只能等安全员前来接管解困了。

这也是为什么不少武汉人会觉得自动驾驶出租车很“苕”。

而能让自动驾驶犯难的，还不单单是窄路会车。北京智能车联产业创新中心从 2018 年开始，每年都会披露在北京测试的各类自动驾驶车辆的表现，其 2022 年的道路测试报告中就提到，前方车道被占、路口博弈和旁边有车切入这三个场景，最容易引发自动驾驶停工，需人工手动驾驶来让车辆脱困。

不过，也有武汉人觉得，自动驾驶之所以显得“苕”，是因为比较“死板”——遵守交规导致它开得不够流畅：

“有一次看到这个苕萝卜准备直行道变到左转道，然后全员鄂人你懂得吧，左转道一直有车没有一辆车让，这个可怜巴巴的萝卜就一直左转灯打着，至少有 10 分钟都没变过去。”

但所谓弱者抱怨环境、强者改变环境，在武汉做无人驾驶安全员的王娟在接受《剥洋葱 people》栏目采访时就提到她的同事们都说：“武汉人开车这么猛，如果我们把武汉都跑通了，跑遍全国也不是问题。”

目前看，自动驾驶技术也确实在提升。

澎湃新闻梳理近期坐过或遇到过 Robotaxi 的武汉市民的讨论时就发现，不少人都反映“苕萝卜”变聪明了。

“我住开发区，这里苕萝卜满街溜达，现在进化了，会加塞了，还会抢道了，信邪额，我开车跟在萝卜后面都看苕了。”

“我那天打车，司机说这个无人驾驶不行，说要别小萝卜的车，结果被萝卜车给别了。司机一直说还挺有本事，来掩饰他的尴尬。”

有人感慨这是武汉司机带坏了自动驾驶，AI 学到了别车这样的驾驶技能，但也有人觉得武汉适合作为 Robotaxi 的试验场，因为复杂的道路环境可以帮助其进步。

不过，在武汉体验过自动驾驶出租车的人，给出的最多评价倒不是聪明不聪明，而是“便宜”。

有武汉市民近期在社交媒体上晒了其过去两年时间 205 笔萝卜快跑的订单，一共实际支付了 1170.44 元。这位市民最近一次打自动驾驶出租车是在 7 月 7 日的晚上 10 点，15 公里的行程一共花费了 7.2 元。

但也有乘坐过 Robotaxi 的消费者发现，自动驾驶出租车的路线规划相比普通导航有绕路的情况，原本 4.5 公里的路程，实际开了 8 公里，最终支付了 5.07 元。但即使是按不绕路的路程算，无人出租车的价格也低到了 1 公里 1 块钱。

尽管有上下车地点受限、路程时间长等问题，但自动驾驶出租车在江城已出现了一批拥趸。“天天坐，因为便宜”，一位武汉市民说。

根据《长江日报》的报道，2023 年 2 月 下旬时，萝卜快跑在武汉市的单日单车峰值就超过了 20 单。而根据武汉市交通运输局在今年 5 月披露的数据，武汉网约车的单车日均订单为 13.2 单。

这让不少司机感到了职业危机。

对于这封信，《南方周末》的评论说，出租车收入减少的“根本原因还是更多的司机在争抢订单，僧多粥少”，“短时间内似乎还不用担心无人驾驶网约车砸了出租车与网约车的饭碗”。

根据武汉市披露的数据，截至今年 7 月初，武汉经开区常态化测试运行的智能网联汽车是 578 辆，这和武汉 2.94 万辆网约车相比，占比不足 2%。

7 月 10 日，武汉市交通运输局对《中国新闻周刊》回应了有关“萝卜快跑抢网约车司机饭碗”的言论：“武汉市 (出租) 汽车行业比较稳定，网上谣言比较多……萝卜快跑已在武汉投放 400 多辆无人驾驶汽车，不是网传的 1000 辆。”

只是，在经历了网约车所带来的冲击后，对尚在测试中的无人驾驶出租车，传统出租车行业已风声鹤唳。

而担忧自己的岗位会被 AI 替代的，也并非只有出租车这一个行业。

仅以自动驾驶这一项人工智能技术而言，就会影响到货运、配送、清扫等数千万人的岗位。

除了武汉的无人驾驶出租车，在其他城市的一些街道，也能看到在道路上忙碌穿梭的无人驾驶车，只是尺寸更小。

这种恍如未来城市的样貌，已出现在一些城市。它们或是从事外卖运送，或是从事快递派送，还有体型更大的自动驾驶卡车负责集装箱货运。

只是，这些无人驾驶车辆还处在试点阶段。

根据交通运输部在 2022 年 8 月和 2024 年 4 月公布的两批智能交通先导应用试点项目名单，全国有超 20 个城市参与了自动驾驶的试点。其中既有北上广深一线城市，也有成都、南京、合肥等省会城市，还有嘉兴、鄂尔多斯等地级市。而试点主题也从公路货运、城市出行服务，到末端配送、港区集装箱运输等都有涵盖。

尽管尚在试点中，但诸如“科技不应该去抢基层人员工作”的担忧声并不算少，甚至还有人担心，会有人把“怒气发泄到机器上，把机器砸烂”。而从第一次工业革命开始，把机器砸烂这件事确实发生过无数次。

澎湃新闻曾在 2023 年的一篇文章中梳理过，电灯、电话、电梯……这些如今看起来稀松平常的工具，曾让相关行业从业者感到无比恐慌。“如果一件事会威胁一个人的生计，抵制它就再自然不过了。”牛津大学研究员卡尔·B.弗雷在《技术陷阱》一书中写道。

问题的关键是，技术进步所带来的红利，能否惠及所有人。经济学家布兰科•米拉诺维奇就指出，历史上已完成的三次工业革命，前两次都加剧了收入不平等。

比如在第一次工业革命中，英国普通人的生活水平就出现了倒退。根据经济历史学家查尔斯·H.范斯坦的研究，从 1770 年到 1840 年，英国工人的工资涨幅显著落后于物价上涨的幅度。而且由于恶劣的工厂工作条件、卫生条件过差的住所，导致生活在工业城市的人，平均预期寿命反而出现了下降。与之对应，技术进步所带来的财富增长，绝大部分都被英国的工业家们拿走了。直到 1840 年英国完成工业革命后，民众才逐渐感受到技术变革带来的红利。但变革中的 70 年，就是普通人的一生。

中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副主席黄奇帆曾于 2023 年 6 月在《瞭望智库》上发表的一篇文章中就针对 AI 所引发的产业变革提醒道：“如果没有政府的干预，人工智能将极大地提高社会的不平等，带来更大的阶级鸿沟。”

国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜 • 格奥尔基耶娃也持相似观点，她在 2024 年的世界经济论坛上说：“在大多数情况下，人工智能可能会加剧整体不平等，政策制定者必须积极应对。”

不过，考虑到技术的进步往往最终能惠及所有人，所以也不能因噎废食。仅以自动驾驶出租车这一项来看，消费者的态度整体积极得多。有人将其总结为：“开车的人烦得要死，打车的人叫好”。

在讨论武汉无人驾驶出租车的优劣时，有人提到无人出租车至少不会拒载，有人问：这年头还有拒载的车吗？记者在梳理背景资料时发现，在武汉市交通运输局最新公布的《2024年6月乘客投诉较多巡游出租车公示》中，上文提到的武汉市建设汽车客运有限公司里，旗下就有出租车司机因拒载、绕路而被乘客多次投诉。

所以，当澎湃新闻基于 241 个在武汉坐过 Robotaxi 的分享帖子及下面的讨论发现，消费者期待无人驾驶出租车到来的理由，多数是和当下出行行业没能完全解决的用户痛点有关。

这一点，我们可以结合近期滴滴发起的一项消费者最想要的功能投票来看：最终的投票结果显示，困扰乘客的打车问题中，有近一半的根源都出自司机。

“我很感谢有这玩意儿～妈呀武汉的司机开得超快！还不让说……有一回天大热！打了个车，他不开空调，他在副驾上开个小风扇……萝卜坐了两回，起码没有很快，正常速度挺好，空调可以调节，也不用听司机和家里人朋友打电话的尴尬。路人也让，逆行的电瓶车也让。不着急的话还是可以打一打，就是上车位置太匪夷所思了。”

这恐怕也是当下，消费者乐见出行市场能出现自动驾驶出租车这一搅局者的原因所在。

不过，也有不少人担心，当下自动驾驶出租车的便宜，是一种促销手段，当站稳脚跟后就会涨价。

这种担忧并非没有道理。

广汽资本在去年发布过一个调查，显示在不配备任何安全员的前提下，前者的每公里成本是 0.72 元，而有人驾驶的电车是 1.22 元。而如果我们按照《自动驾驶汽车运输安全服务指南（试行）》中的要求，远程安全员应符合人车比不得低于 1:3 来做个粗换算，那无人驾驶出租车的成本至少也要 0.93 元每公里。

这意味着，尽管无人出租车的出行成本，正如多个调研机构此前所预测的那样，会在 2025 年到 2028 年之间，出现低于有人出租车的历史拐点。但是，当下不少人坐无人驾驶出租车所遇到的“5 块钱坐 3 公里”这种超低价，不可持续。

而且，即使克服了成本问题，无人驾驶出租车还有技术障碍要解决。

自动驾驶公司 Cruise 的一名专业人士在今年 6 月接受《每日经济新闻》采访时曾表示，自动驾驶汽车在 99.99% 的场景中做得已经很好了，但自动驾驶仍存在一些“长尾问题”，“要实现全面超越人类驾驶员的无人车可能至少还需要 5 年~10 年。”

这也意味着，我们还要至少等几年时间，才能坐上能应对各种路况的 Robotaxi。但这个等待并不算漫长。

毕竟 1956 年的达特茅斯会议上，人工智能一词被正式提出时，与会者中就有不少人乐观地相信，和人类拥有相似智能水平的机器，将会在不超过一代人的时间里出现，但这场探索最终陷入了低谷。此后，人类对 AI 的乐观与悲观情绪总是循环往复地出现。

如今，我们离真正能为大众排忧解难的 AI，比以往任何时候都要近，也更需要做好技术之外的种种准备。不仅是因为反对技术进步的卢德主义幽灵，从第一次工业革命起就一直在人类上空游荡，更是因为靠科技进步就解决人类各种问题的技术乌托邦，从来都不存在。

Autonomous ride hailing cars have learned how to avoid other cars

Where is the wildest place to drive in China? Is it Su E who doesn't like to turn on the turn signal when changing lanes? Is it Zhejiang J who always loves to turn on the high beam wherever he goes? according to the traffic accident data, it is from Hubei.

According to the latest China Traffic Yearbook, in 2021, the number of traffic accidents per 100000 civilian vehicles in Hubei was 285.2, ranking first among all provinces, while the national average was 83.6.

There are also various stories circulating on social media about Hubei people driving aggressively. For example, at the beginning of this century, there were reports of the 521 bus in Wuhan traveling so fast that the handrails were bent and the tires rubbed against them, causing a fire. Even 20 years later, reporters from Hubei Radio and Television station went on a field visit.

But now, many old drivers in Wuhan who have even beaten trains are complaining that they have been tempered by autonomous taxis:

The radish wanted to change lanes, but no one asked it, so it kept waiting, causing a long blockage behind it

The morning rush hour in Zhuankou is often caused by traffic jams due to sweet potatoes and radishes

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A bus driver on Wuhan Route 271 got off to check on a self driving taxi blocking the road, but was helpless because there was no one in the car.

Autonomous driving,

Learn to Don't Drive in Wuhan

The term 'Tiaoluo' in the population of Wuhan originates from the autonomous driving travel service brand 'Carrot Run', and the word 'Tiao' was added by Wuhan citizens. In Hubei dialect, when used as an adjective, 'Tiao' means' silly '.

Unlike many people's impression that autonomous cars are still being tested in suburban areas with few cars and people, in Wuhan, citizens can already hail self driving taxis in the urban area like hailing a ride hailing service. According to a report by Changjiang Daily at the beginning of this year, Robotaxi's testing scope in Wuhan has covered 12 administrative regions and reached a population of over 7.7 million. Jiangcheng is currently the "world's largest autonomous driving travel service area".

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Another surprising thing is that many Robotaxis on the streets of Wuhan no longer have safety officers on their drivers, but have switched to remote monitoring of vehicle operations.

However, the current autonomous driving technology has not yet reached an invincible level. For example, when encountering a passing car on a narrow road, some auto drive system are at a loss and have to stop and wait for the other party to pass first. But when the opposing vehicles are also Robotaxis, the two vehicles can only wait for the safety officer to come and take over to solve the problem.

That's also why many people in Wuhan think that autonomous taxis are very "sweet".

And what makes autonomous driving difficult is not just narrow road traffic. Since 2018, the Beijing intelligent Connected Vehicle industry Innovation center has been disclosing the performance of various types of autonomous vehicles tested in Beijing every year. Its 2022 road test report mentioned that the scenarios of lane occupation, intersection game, and adjacent vehicles entering the road are the most likely to cause autonomous driving to stop, requiring manual driving to help the vehicles get out of trouble.

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However, some people in Wuhan also feel that the reason why autonomous driving appears "mediocre" is because it is relatively "rigid" - following traffic rules leads to it not driving smoothly enough:

Once I saw this sweet radish preparing to turn from a straight lane to a left turn, and then all the people in Hubei, you know, there were no cars on the left turn, and this poor radish kept turning left with the lights on for at least 10 minutes without changing

But the so-called weak complain about the environment, while the strong change the environment. Wang Juan, who works as a self driving safety officer in Wuhan, mentioned in an interview with the program "People Peel Onion" that her colleagues all said, "Wuhan people drive so hard. If we run through Wuhan, it won't be a problem to run all over the country

At present, autonomous driving technology is indeed improving.

When Pengpai News reviewed recent discussions among Wuhan citizens who have sat or encountered Robotaxi, it was found that many people have reported that "Tiao Luobo" has become smarter.

I live in the development zone, where sweet potatoes and radishes roam the streets. Now that it has evolved, it can become congested and even steal lanes. I believe in evil spirits. I drove behind the radishes and even watched sweet potatoes

That day when I took a taxi, the driver said that the autonomous driving was not good and said he wanted to give up Little Radish's car, but he was given up by Little Radish's car. The driver kept saying he was quite capable to cover up his embarrassment

Some people lament that Wuhan drivers have disrupted autonomous driving, and AI has learned driving skills like other cars. However, others believe that Wuhan is suitable as a testing ground for Robotaxi, as its complex road environment can help it improve.

However, the most common evaluation given by those who have experienced autonomous taxis in Wuhan is not whether they are smart or not, but "cheap".

A Wuhan citizen recently posted on social media about 205 orders for Carrot Run over the past two years, with a total actual payment of 1170.44 yuan. The last time this citizen took an autonomous taxi was at 10 pm on July 7th, and the 15 kilometer journey cost a total of 7.2 yuan.

But some consumers who have taken Robotaxi have also found that the route planning of autonomous taxis has detours compared to ordinary navigation. The original 4.5-kilometer journey was actually driven for 8 kilometers, and the final payment was 5.07 yuan. But even for non detours, the price of unmanned taxis is as low as 1 yuan per kilometer.

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Despite issues such as limited boarding and alighting locations and long travel times, autonomous taxis have gained a group of fans in Jiangcheng. Sitting every day because it's cheap, "said a Wuhan citizen.

According to a report by Changjiang Daily, in late February 2023, the peak daily number of bicycles for Carrot Run in Wuhan exceeded 20. According to data disclosed by the Wuhan Municipal transportation Bureau in May this year, the daily average number of orders for ride hailing services in Wuhan is 13.2.

This has made many drivers feel a professional crisis.

The unmanned taxi has arrived,

The drivers are very anxious

In late June of this year, a letter titled "Cruising taxis are on the brink of death" spread on social media, emphasizing the impact of autonomous taxis on their business models.

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In response to this letter, Southern Weekend commented that "the root cause of the decrease in taxi revenue is that more drivers are competing for orders, and there are more monks than porridge". "In a short time, it seems that there is no need to worry that the unmanned online taxi hailing will ruin the jobs of taxis and online taxi hailing".

According to data disclosed by Wuhan City, as of early July this year, there were 578 intelligent connected vehicles in normal testing and operation in Wuhan economic Development Zone, accounting for less than 2% compared to the 29400 ride hailing vehicles in Wuhan.

On July 10th, the Wuhan Transportation Bureau responded to comments from China Newsweek about "Carrot Run snatching the job of ride hailing drivers": "The taxi industry in Wuhan is relatively stable, and there are many rumors online... Carrot Run has already deployed more than 400 autonomous vehicles in Wuhan, not the 1000 rumored on the internet

However, after experiencing the impact of ride hailing services, the traditional taxi industry has become increasingly cautious about the autonomous taxis that are still being tested.

And it's not just the taxi industry that worries about their job being replaced by AI.

As far as autonomous driving, an artificial intelligence technology, is concerned, it will affect millions of jobs in freight, delivery, cleaning, and other industries.

In addition to the autonomous taxis in Wuhan, some streets in other cities can also see autonomous vehicles busy shuttling on the roads, albeit in smaller sizes.

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Meituan's unmanned delivery vehicles are piloting food delivery in the Shunyi area of Beijing.

This kind of futuristic urban appearance has already appeared in some cities. They are either engaged in food delivery, express delivery, or larger self driving trucks responsible for container freight.

However, these autonomous vehicles are still in the pilot stage.

According to the two batches of pilot projects for intelligent transportation pilot applications announced by the Ministry of transport in August 2022 and April 2024, over 20 cities across the country have participated in the pilot of autonomous driving. Among them, there are first tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, as well as provincial capitals such as Chengdu, Nanjing, and Hefei, and prefecture level cities such as Jiaxing and Ordos. The pilot themes also cover road freight, urban travel services, end of pipe distribution, port container transportation, and more.

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Although it is still in the pilot stage, concerns such as "technology should not compete for grassroots workers' jobs" are not uncommon, and some even worry that someone will "vent their anger on machines and smash them". Since the first industrial revolution, smashing machines has indeed happened countless times.

Pengpai News once sorted out in an article in 2023 that tools such as electric lights, telephones, elevators, which now seem commonplace, have caused great panic among practitioners in related industries. If something threatens a person's livelihood, resisting it is only natural, "wrote Carl B. Frey, a researcher at Oxford University, in his book" The Technology Trap.

The key issue is whether the dividends brought by technological progress can benefit everyone. Economist Blanco Milanovic pointed out that the first two of the three completed industrial revolutions in history exacerbated income inequality.

For example, during the first industrial revolution, the living standards of ordinary people in Britain regressed. According to the research of economic historian Charles H. Feinstein, from 1770 to 1840, the wage increase of British workers significantly lagged behind the magnitude of price increases. Moreover, due to poor factory working conditions and unsanitary living conditions, the average life expectancy of people living in industrial cities has actually decreased. Correspondingly, the vast majority of wealth growth brought about by technological progress has been taken away by British industrialists. It was not until 1840, after the completion of the Industrial Revolution in Britain, that the people gradually felt the dividends brought by technological change. But the 70 years of change are the lives of ordinary people.

Huang Qifan, Executive Vice Chairman of the academic Committee of the China National Innovation and Development Strategy Research Association, warned in an article published in "Outlook Think Tank" in June 2023 about the industrial transformation caused by AI: "Without government intervention, artificial intelligence will greatly increase social inequality and bring about greater class divides

Kristalina Georgieva, Managing director of the International Monetary Fund, also holds a similar view. She said at the 2024 World Economic Forum, "In most cases, artificial intelligence may exacerbate overall inequality, and policymakers must actively respond

Technology needs to address user pain points

However, considering that technological advancements often ultimately benefit everyone, we cannot give up eating just because of choking. From the perspective of autonomous taxis alone, the overall attitude of consumers is much more positive. Some people summarize it as: 'Drivers are extremely annoyed, while taxi drivers cheer.'.

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When discussing the advantages and disadvantages of unmanned taxis in Wuhan, some people mentioned that at least unmanned taxis will not refuse to take passengers, while others asked: Are there still cars that refuse to take passengers these days? When sorting out background information, the reporter found that in the latest announcement of "June 2024 passenger Complaints on Touring Taxis" released by the Wuhan Transportation Bureau, there are taxi drivers under Wuhan construction Automobile Passenger Transport Co., Ltd. who have been repeatedly complained by passengers for refusing to take or taking detours.

So, based on 241 shared posts about riding Robotaxi in Wuhan and the following discussion, Pengpai News found that the reasons why consumers expect the arrival of autonomous taxis are mostly related to the pain points that the current transportation industry has not fully solved for users.

We can combine this with a recent consumer preference feature poll initiated by Didi: the final poll results show that nearly half of the taxi problems that plague passengers are caused by drivers.

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I'm very grateful for this thing~Oh my god, the driver in Wuhan drives so fast! Let alone... One day it was hot! I took a taxi, but he didn't turn on the air conditioning. He turned on a small fan in the passenger seat... Carrot sat twice, at least not very fast, the normal speed was good, the air conditioning could be adjusted, and there was no need to listen to the embarrassment of the driver and family and friends on the phone. Passersby and electric scooters in the opposite direction also made mistakes. If you're not in a hurry, you can still make a call, but the boarding position is too unbelievable

This is probably also the reason why consumers are happy to see the emergence of autonomous taxis as disruptors in the transportation market at present.

Robotaxi，

How long until testing and commercialization?

However, many people are also concerned that the current affordability of autonomous taxis is a promotional tactic, and once they establish a foothold, they will increase in price.

This concern is not without reason.

Guangqi Capital released a survey last year, which showed that without any safety personnel, the cost per kilometer of the former was 0.72 yuan, while the cost of a manned tram was 1.22 yuan. However, if we follow the requirements of the autonomous vehicle Transportation Safety Service Guide (Trial), the remote security officer should meet the requirement that the ratio of people to vehicles should not be less than 1:3 to make a rough conversion, then the cost of driverless taxis should be at least 0.93 yuan per km.

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This means that despite the travel costs of unmanned taxis, as previously predicted by multiple research institutions, there will be a historical turning point between 2025 and 2028 when they are lower than those of manned taxis. However, the extremely low price of "5 yuan for 3 kilometers" that many people encounter when taking autonomous taxis is unsustainable.

Moreover, even if the cost issue is overcome, there are still technical barriers to be overcome for autonomous taxis.

A professional from Cruise, an autonomous driving company, said in an interview with the Daily Economic News in June this year that autonomous vehicle have done well in 99.99% of the scenes, but there are still some "long tail problems" in autonomous driving. "It may take at least 5 to 10 years to achieve a fully surpassing human drivers in unmanned vehicles."

This also means that we will have to wait at least a few more years before we can board a Robotaxi that can handle various road conditions. But this wait is not particularly long.

After all, when the term artificial intelligence was officially proposed at the Dartmouth Conference in 1956, many attendees were optimistic that machines with similar levels of intelligence to humans would emerge within no more than a generation. However, this exploration ultimately fell into a slump. Afterwards, human optimism and pessimism towards AI always appeared in a cyclical manner.

Nowadays, we are closer than ever to AI that can truly solve problems for the public, and we need to be more prepared beyond technology. Not only because the Luddite ghost, who opposes technological progress, has been hovering over humanity since the first industrial revolution, but also because the technological utopia that solves various human problems through technological progress has never existed.

句子成分分析：(划分说明)  提示：框中标识可点击

This means | that [despite the travel costs (of unmanned taxis)], as previously predicted [by multiple research institutions], || there will be a historical turningpoint [between 2025 and 2028] || when they are lower [than those (of mannedtaxis)].

句子语法结构详解：

(lower 为 low 的比较级形式)

* means 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* as 为连词，引导状语从句。句子有省略。
* previously predicted 为过去分词。
* there 引导 there be ... 句型, 表示“有”的意思。
* be 为系动词作谓语，采用一般将来时。
* when 为连词，引导时间状语从句。
* are 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* low 为形容词作表语。
* manned 为过去分词作定语
* will 为情态动词。they 为人称代词主格。this, those 为指示代词。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子成分分析：(划分说明)  提示：框中标识可点击

A professional (from Cruise, <an autonomous driving company>,) said [in an interview] [with the Daily Economic News (in June)] [this year] (thatautonomous vehicle have done [well] [in 99.99% (of the scenes)]), || but thereare still some "long tail problems" [in autonomous driving].
"It may take [at least] 5 to 10 years to achieve a fully surpassing human drivers[in unmanned vehicles]."

句子语法结构详解：

(said 为 say 的过去式。)

* an autonomous driving company 为同位语
* said 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* that 为关系代词，引导定语从句。
* done 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* but 为并列连词，连接并列句，表转折。
* there 引导 there be ... 句型, 表示“有”的意思。
* are 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* it 为先行主语，代表后移的不定式。
* take 为谓语。
* to achieve 为不定式。
* may 为情态动词。have 为助动词。the 为定冠词。a/an 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

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