秒词邦

原文：

　　作为A股市场两大热门板块，白酒股与科技股谁更具备吸引力？

　　受飞天茅台（600519）批发价格持续下跌的影响，5月中旬以来，贵州茅台(1541.500, -13.50, -0.87%)（600519）股价持续下滑，已回调至2022年12月初水平。与此同时，A股白酒板块整体也在持续下探；以半导体、“果链”为主的科技板块却表现出震荡上涨的局面，市值最大科技公司——中国移动(98.900, -2.08, -2.06%)自5月21日至6月14日，股价上涨5.37%。

　　茅台大跌是什么信号

　　作为A股“股王”，贵州茅台大跌相对罕见。据证券时报·数据宝统计，过去10年间（2014年6月15日至2024年6月14日），贵州茅台单日跌幅超过1.5%的交易日有354次，2018年10月29日，公司股价跌停，引发市场恐慌。自2023年以来，公司大幅下跌交易日明显下降；今年以来，仅6个交易日跌幅超过1.5%。

　　贵州茅台大幅下跌有什么信号？历次数据显示，持续下行或成为阶段性底部的重要指示，2022年9月29日至2022年10月31日，贵州茅台股价下跌近30%。自2022年10月31日起，贵州茅台后5日涨10.82%，后10日涨12.72%，沪深300指数(3536.1986, -5.33, -0.15%)后5日涨6.61%，后10日涨7.14%；上证指数由2900点附近上涨至3100点左右。

　　2020年3月11日至2020年3月19日，贵州茅台下跌13.84%，自2022年3月19日起，其股价后5日涨5.65%，后10日涨13.59%；沪深300指数后5日涨1.7%，后10日涨2.7%，后20日涨5.59%。

　　两大板块出现明显分歧

　　贵州茅台是众多白酒公司的代表之一，从盘面来看，自5月21日至6月14日，白酒指数跌幅超过13%，同期科技50指数仅小幅下跌，半导体产业指数、芯片指数呈逆势上涨。白酒板块与以半导体为主的科技板块出现明显分歧。

　　事实上，这种分歧在历史上曾多次出现。从2023年全年来看，白酒指数下跌超过17%，而半导体产业指数上涨8.28%，芯片指数涨幅超过10%。再往前看，2020年白酒指数全年涨幅接近140%，芯片、半导体产业涨幅比前者的一半还低。

　　为何会出现这样的分歧，科技板块与白酒板块谁更具备吸引力。

　　一方面来自于美股苹果、微软、英伟达“市值一哥”的争夺战，带动科技股关注度提升，这种情绪传导至A股市场；另一方面，A股“科特估”横空出世，在发展新质生产力，以及科技强国的重要使命下，科技板块获得大量资金的关注。

　　为对比分析，以白酒指数、半导体产业指数为重点研究对象，分析两者的异同。

　　从估值来看，早在2022年末，白酒指数与半导体产业指数估值基本相当，均为34倍左右，近10年间（2014年6月14日至2024年6月14日）白酒指数最低估值仅11.28倍，半导体产业指数最低估值30.62倍，也就是说白酒板块此时的估值已居相对高位。

　　截至今年6月14日，白酒指数估值21.43倍，半导体产业指数估值接近77倍，两者较对应行业近10年间的最高估值均有较大差距。与近10年间的平均估值相比，半导体产业指数当前估值超过前者，白酒指数不到前者的0.7倍。不过从科技50指数来看，当前估值不到30倍，仍处于相对低位。

　　从成长性来看，自2021年至2023年，白酒指数净利润同比增速保持15%以上，半导体产业2023年整体下滑；从盈利性来看，白酒指数加权净资产收益率（ROE）持续超过25%，半导体产业指数ROE由2021年的12.06%持续下滑至2023年的4.77%；科技50指数ROE保持在10%至20%之间。

　　从杠杆资金来看，截至6月13日，白酒指数成份股年内（较2023年末）获融资客减仓0.16%，半导体产业指数获融资客加仓2.19%。

　　从机构持仓来看，截至今年一季末，6家半导体产业指数成份股获QFII持仓，其中3家获加仓；白酒指数成份股无1家获QFII持仓。

　　现阶段，半导体板块财务指标整体不及白酒股，且科技股当前估值略高。不过通过机构一致预测数据来计算，白酒指数成份股2024年净利润整体增幅18%左右，受上一年业绩下滑（亏损）影响，半导体产业指数成份股2024年整体增幅或超过70%。

　　如何选择？

　　综上所述，在财务方面，半导体产业“一高两低”，即未来业绩成长性可观，过去的成长性、盈利性一般。虽然半导体产业指数估值远超过白酒指数，但由于市场对科技股估值普遍给予较高水平，根据历史数据来看，半导体产业指数当下估值相对合理。

　　以贵州茅台、五粮液(135.730, 0.05, 0.04%)（000858）为主的白酒长期以来被赋予了金融和奢侈品属性的标签，被认为具有抵御通货膨胀的潜力。

　　对科技公司而言，科技成果的落地需要时间的沉淀，国家集成电路产业大基金多次战略投资半导体产业；央行14日发文称，2024年4月，中国人民银行联合科技部等部门设立5000亿元科技创新和技术改造再贷款，其中1000亿元额度专门用于支持初创期、成长期科技型中小企业首次贷款，激励金融机构更大力度投早、投小、投硬科技，足见国家对科技创新的投资决心。

　　那么究竟该如何选择，专业人士认为，白酒行业的未来本质上依赖于消费者群体的偏好和变迁。目前白酒消费群体主要集中在80年代之前出生的人群，随着时代的变迁，年轻人对白酒的态度却呈现出明显的顾忌和偏好下降的趋势。根据里斯战略定位咨询发布的《年轻人的酒——中国酒类品类创新研究报告》显示，白酒在年轻人“过去一年最常喝什么酒”的回答中仅占9%，远低于啤酒、葡萄酒和果酒的占比。

　　对于科技股，方正证券(8.410, 0.01, 0.12%)（601901）表示，对于科技股的行情具备充足信心，核心原因在于：无论是“中特估”还是“科特估”都是资本市场服务于实体经济使命的一部分，但短期信号仍需考量多方面因素。当前对于“科特估”需要保持关注，但也需要多一些耐心。

　　绩优持续分红半导体公司出炉

　　复盘历史数据，无论是任何行业板块，具备稳定的成长性、稳定的分红以及稳定盈利性的公司通常能走出“慢牛”行情。基于上文分析，科技产业的成长性、盈利性普遍低于白酒行业，因此在设置参数时，尽量给予较低门槛。据数据宝统计，2022年至2024年（2024年取机构预测数据）净利润增幅均超过5%，2021年至2023年加权ROE均超过5%，且2021年至2023年实施分红的半导体产业公司，经过筛选仅有9家，包括晶盛机电(33.670, 0.04, 0.12%)（300316）、安集科技(134.700, 2.66, 2.01%)（688019）、北方华创(333.340, 10.54, 3.27%)（002371）等公司。

　　从机构预测数据来看，2024年净利润增幅有望超过30%的公司有雅克科技(65.080, 1.07, 1.67%)（002409）、北方华创及芯源微(103.590, -3.22, -3.01%)。雅克科技主要致力于电子半导体材料，深冷复合材料以及塑料助剂材料研发和生产，上市以来公司累计分红7.28亿元。

　　除南大光电(31.060, 0.49, 1.60%)（300346）及雅克科技外，其余7家公司2023年加权ROE均超过10%，晶盛机电、安集科技超过20%。

　　从分红来看，上述9家公司，有3家公司上市以来累计现金分红超过10亿元，分别是中兴通讯(27.750, -0.07, -0.25%)、晶盛机电及中科曙光(41.750, -0.51, -1.21%)（603019），其中中兴通讯累计分红超过90亿元，上市以来累计分红率达到28.51%，位居9家公司第2位，仅次于南大光电。

译文：

As two hot sectors of A-share market, which is more attractive, Baijiu shares or technology shares?

Affected by the continuous decline of the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai (600519), since the middle of May, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai (1541.500, -13.50, -0.87%) (600519) has continued to decline, and has returned to the level in early December 2022. At the same time, the A-share Baijiu sector as a whole has continued to decline; The technology sector, mainly composed of semiconductors and fruit chains, has shown a volatile upward trend. The largest technology company by market value, China Mobile (98.900, -2.08, -2.06%), saw its stock price rise by 5.37% from May 21 to June 14.

What is the signal of Maotai's sharp decline

As the "king" of A-shares, Kweichow Moutai's sharp drop is relatively rare. according to the statistics of Securities Times · Databao, in the past 10 years (from June 15, 2014 to June 14, 2024), there were 354 trading days in Kweichow Moutai with a daily decline of more than 1.5%. On October 29, 2018, the company's share price fell by the limit, causing market panic. Since 2023, the company has experienced a significant decline in trading days; Since the beginning of this year, the decline has exceeded 1.5% in only 6 trading days.

What's the signal of Kweichow Moutai's sharp decline? previous data shows that the stock price of Kweichow Moutai will fall by nearly 30% from September 29, 2022 to October 31, 2022. From October 31, 2022, Kweichow Moutai will rise 10.82% in the next 5 days, 12.72% in the next 10 days, 6.61% in the next 5 days and 7.14% in the next 10 days for the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index (3536.1986, -5.33, -0.15%); The Shanghai Composite Index rose from around 2900 points to around 3100 points.

From March 11, 2020 to March 19, 2020, Kweichow Moutai fell by 13.84%. From March 19, 2022, its share price rose by 5.65% in the next 5 days and 13.59% in the next 10 days; The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.7% in the next 5 days, 2.7% in the next 10 days, and 5.59% in the next 20 days.

There is a clear divergence between the two major sectors

Kweichow Moutai is one of the representatives of many Baijiu companies. From the perspective of the market, from May 21 to June 14, the Baijiu index fell by more than 13%. During the same period, the technology 50 index only fell slightly, while the semiconductor industry index and chip index rose against the trend. There are obvious differences between the Baijiu sector and the semiconductor based technology sector.

In fact, this divergence has occurred multiple times in history. In 2023, the Baijiu index will fall by more than 17%, while the semiconductor industry index will rise by 8.28% and the chip index will rise by more than 10%. Looking further ahead, the annual growth of Baijiu index in 2020 is nearly 140%, and the growth of chip and semiconductor industries is less than half of the former.

Why is there such a difference? Which is more attractive in the technology sector or the Baijiu sector.

On the one hand, the competition for the "market value leader" of American stocks Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia has driven the attention of technology stocks to increase, and this sentiment has been transmitted to the A-share market; On the other hand, the A-share market's "Koteku" emerged unexpectedly, and under the important mission of developing new quality productivity and building a strong technology country, the technology sector has received a large amount of funding attention.

For comparative analysis, take Baijiu index and semiconductor industry index as key research objects to analyze the similarities and differences between the two.

From the perspective of valuation, as early as the end of 2022, the valuation of Baijiu index and semiconductor industry index was basically the same, both about 34 times. In the past 10 years (from June 14, 2014 to June 14, 2024), the lowest underestimated value of Baijiu index was only 11.28 times, and the lowest underestimated value of semiconductor industry index was 30.62 times, which means that the valuation of Baijiu sector at this time was relatively high.

As of June 14 this year, the valuation of the Baijiu index was 21.43 times and that of the semiconductor industry index was close to 77 times, both of which were far behind the highest valuation of the corresponding industry in the past 10 years. Compared with the average valuation in recent 10 years, the current valuation of the semiconductor industry index is more than the former, and the Baijiu index is less than 0.7 times of the former. However, from the perspective of the Technology 50 Index, the current valuation is less than 30 times and still at a relatively low level.

From the perspective of growth, from 2021 to 2023, the net profit growth of the Baijiu index will remain above 15% year on year, and the semiconductor industry will decline as a whole in 2023; From the perspective of profitability, the weighted return on equity (ROE) of the Baijiu index continued to exceed 25%, and the semiconductor industry index ROE continued to decline from 12.06% in 2021 to 4.77% in 2023; The ROE of the Technology 50 Index remains between 10% and 20%.

From the perspective of leverage funds, as of June 13, the Baijiu index constituent stocks had 0.16% of their positions reduced by financiers within the year (compared with the end of 2023), and the semiconductor industry index had 2.19% of their positions increased by financiers.

From the perspective of institutional holdings, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, 6 semiconductor industry index constituent stocks have obtained QFII holdings, of which 3 have increased their holdings; None of the Baijiu index constituent stocks obtained QFII positions.

At this stage, the overall financial indicators of the semiconductor sector are lower than those of Baijiu shares, and the current valuation of technology shares is slightly higher. However, based on the consistent forecast data of institutions, the overall net profit of Baijiu index constituent stocks will increase by about 18% in 2024. Affected by the performance decline (loss) of the previous year, the overall growth of semiconductor industry index constituent stocks will exceed 70% in 2024.

How to choose?

In summary, in terms of finance, the semiconductor industry has "one high and two low", which means that the future performance growth is considerable, while the past growth and profitability are average. Although the valuation of the semiconductor industry index is far more than that of the Baijiu index, the market generally gives a high level of valuation to technology stocks. According to historical data, the current valuation of the semiconductor industry index is relatively reasonable.

Baijiu, mainly composed of Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye (135.730, 0.05, 0.04%) (000858), has long been labeled as financial and luxury, and is considered to have the potential to resist inflation.

For technology companies, the implementation of technological achievements requires time to settle, and the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund has made multiple strategic investments in the semiconductor industry; The People's Bank of China, in conjunction with the Ministry of Science and Technology and other departments, established a 500 billion yuan re loan for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation in April 2024, with a 100 billion yuan quota specifically used to support initial loans for technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises in their start-up and growth stages. This will encourage financial institutions to invest more in early, small, and hard technology, demonstrating the country's determination to invest in scientific and technological innovation.

So how to choose? Professionals believe that the future of Baijiu industry essentially depends on the preferences and changes of consumer groups. At present, Baijiu consumption groups are mainly concentrated in people born before the 1980s. With the change of the times, young people's attitude towards Baijiu has shown an obvious trend of fear and preference decline. According to the Young People's Wine - China's Alcohol Category Innovation Research Report released by Rees Strategic Positioning Consulting, Baijiu only accounts for 9% of young people's answers to "what wine they most often drink in the past year", far less than beer, wine and fruit wine.

For technology stocks, Founder Securities (8.410, 0.01, 0.12%) (601901) stated that they have sufficient confidence in the market situation of technology stocks. The core reason is that both "Zhongte Guai" and "Kete Guai" are part of the capital market's mission to serve the real economy, but short-term signals still need to consider multiple factors. At present, attention needs to be paid to "Kote estimation", but more patience is also needed.

Continuous dividend payout from semiconductor companies with outstanding performance

Reviewing historical data, regardless of any industry sector, companies with stable growth potential, stable dividends, and stable profitability are usually able to emerge from a slow bull market. Based on the above analysis, the growth and profitability of the technology industry is generally lower than that of the Baijiu industry, so when setting parameters, try to give a lower threshold. According to Data Treasure statistics, the net profit growth rate from 2022 to 2024 (based on institutional forecast data) exceeded 5%, and the weighted ROE from 2021 to 2023 exceeded 5%. Among the semiconductor industry companies that implemented dividends from 2021 to 2023, only 9 were selected, including Jingsheng Electromechanical (33.670, 0.04, 0.12%) (300316), Anji Technology (134.700, 2.66, 2.01%) (688019), and Northern Huachuang (333.340, 10.54, 3.27%) (002371).

According to institutional forecast data, companies with a net profit growth rate expected to exceed 30% in 2024 include Yake Technology (65.080, 1.07, 1.67%) (002409), Northern Huachuang, and Xinyuan Micro (103.590, -3.22, -3.01%). Yake Technology is mainly committed to the research and production of electronic semiconductor materials, cryogenic composite materials, and plastic additive materials. Since its listing, the company has accumulated dividends of 728 million yuan.

Except for Nanda Optoelectronics (31.060, 0.49, 1.60%) (300346) and Yake Technology, the weighted ROE of the other seven companies in 2023 exceeded 10%, while Jingsheng Electromechanical and Anji Technology exceeded 20%.

From the perspective of dividends, among the nine companies mentioned above, three have accumulated cash dividends exceeding 1 billion yuan since going public, namely ZTE (27.750, -0.07, -0.25%), Jingsheng Electromechanical and Zhongke Shuguang (41.750, -0.51, -1.21%) (603019). Among them, ZTE has accumulated dividends exceeding 9 billion yuan, with a cumulative dividend rate of 28.51% since going public, ranking second among the nine companies, only behind Nanda Optoelectronics.

句子分析1：

However, from the perspective of the Technology 50 Index, the current valuation is less than 30 times and still at a relatively low level.

句子成分分析：(划分说明)  

[However], [from the perspective (of the Technology 50 Index)], the current valuation is [less than] 30 times and still [at a relatively low level].

句子语法结构详解：

* is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

相关语法知识:
   系动词
   时态
   并列连词

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子语法错误检查：

(未发现错误)

句子分析2：

 None of the Baijiu index constituent stocks obtained QFII positions.

句子成分分析：(划分说明)  

None (of the Baijiu index constituent stocks) obtained QFII positions.

句子语法结构详解：

* obtained 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* none 为不定代词。the 为定冠词。

相关语法知识:
   时态
   none 的用法
   不定代词

句子相关词汇解释：

Vocabulary:

句子语法错误检查：

(未发现错误)

句子相关学习点：

 none of 作主语时的主谓一致原则

以上是秒词邦为您整理编写的文章《万亿茅台大跌，什么信号？科技VS白酒，谁是王者》的全部内容。秒词邦是国内权威分题型分考点背诵中高考/四六级考研/专升本/出国单词的专业单词软件。扫描如下小程序码，进入秒词邦官方小程序获取更多英语相关资料！ 【关键词：高考单词；高考英语；高中单词；高中英语；单词app；单词软件；记单词app；记单词软件；背单词软件；背单词app；英语单词；四六级单词；四六级英语；四六级单词app；四六级单词软件；考研单词app；考研单词软件；核心单词；高考冲刺复习；高考英语教材；高考英语真题；四六级真题；四六级试题；考研真题；考研英语单词；考研英语真题】