记者 陈升龙

在刚刚过去的五一长期，正处于樱花季尾声的日本成为中国游客出境游最热门目的地之一。

受日元贬值影响，赴日外国游客数量持续增加。日本国家旅游局的数据显示，一季度访日游客的消费总额达到17505亿日元（约合人民币819亿元），创下单季历史新高。其中，墨西哥、菲律宾、西班牙、美国的游客较新冠疫情前的2019年同期增长最多。

日元疲软极大程度提升了游客对路易威登、劳力士、香奈儿等奢侈品的购买欲望，以及在高级酒店和餐厅的消费。据法新社报道，在东京，一个价格约4430美元的手提包，5年前要6250美元。游客出示护照还可以抵扣10%的消费税。此外，先进的医疗技术也吸引着海外患者前往日本寻求医治。

除了提振旅游等服务性行业，日元走弱使得日本出口商品更有竞争力，从而提高出口企业利润；对于外国投资者来说，日本公司的股票也变得更加便宜。不过，如果日元继续贬值，可能会使得居民生活成本上升，从而遏制消费欲望，并逐步损害日本经济。

由于资源匮乏，这个世界第四大经济体也是最依赖进口的国家之一，其90%的能源和60%以上的食品要依靠海外供应。日本经济学家和政府官员近期接连发出警告，日元大幅贬值可能推高通胀，要警惕日币汇率过度波动。

4月29日，日元对美元汇率一度跌破160日元兑1美元，创34年以来新低，随后迅速回到160下方。市场猜测，日本央行已通过买进日元、抛售美元的操作来支撑日元汇率。

这一猜测一定程度上得到了证实。5月8日，东京电视台引述匿名官员称，日本当局在上周两次干预了外汇市场。华泰证券根据日本央行经常账户的数据推算，本轮干预规模可能达到600亿美元，约占该国外汇储备的4.5%。

同样在5月8日，日本央行行长植田和男在出席国会会议时一改此前对“弱日元”放任的态度，他表示，随着企业越来越倾向于将涨价成本转嫁给消费者，日元疲软对通胀产生影响的可能性比以前更大，日本央行将视汇率和通胀的波动程度采取应对措施。

一同出席国会会议的财务大臣铃木俊一也表示，当局已经准备好应对货币市场的过度波动。在他看来，与地缘冲突风险相比，日元贬值导致食品和能源价格上涨产生的影响要大得多。一旦物价涨幅抵消今年3月劳资双方所达成的大幅涨薪效果，就会打乱日本政府追求的工资-物价良性循环的局面。

分析人士认为，1美元兑换160日元已经成为日本政府的最新底线，一旦有突破的苗头就会及时干预。不过，在强美元的背景下，他们对日本央行的干预效果持怀疑态度。截至5月9日下午，日元对美元汇率逐步逼近156日元兑1美元。

东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对界面新闻表示，考虑到美日利差较大，美日债券套息交易短期不易逆转，做空日元的规模较大，这就意味着干预汇率的成本也很大。日本当局的干预措施仅能通过抬升做空日元成本来防止日元出现无序贬值，但短期内很难逆转日元贬值趋势。

她进一步解释称，一方面，当前日本经济依然较为疲软，通胀的可持续性存疑，在此背景下，日本央行未来政策立场将依然偏鸽，即便加息，也将保持“小步慢行”的谨慎步伐，对日元提振作用较为有限。

另一方面，白雪表示，在美国国内通胀连续超预期的背景下，市场对美联储降息预期较此前已经大幅降温，首次降息时点可能延至9月之后，降息幅度也大幅收敛。这意味着短期内美元还将保持强势，非美货币包括日元仍处于相对弱势的地位。

面临货币贬值窘境的远不止日本，年初至今，亚洲各主要货币对美元几乎都在贬值。

土耳其里拉可以算是日元的“难兄难弟”，今年迄今，两者对美元的跌幅都在10%左右。朝日新闻援引日本官方数据称，由于日元贬值，今年3月，只有122万日本人前往国外，这一规模仅为2019年同期的63%。土耳其是为数不多可以“捡便宜”的目的地之一。

4月24日，东盟最大的经济体印尼将基准利率提高25个基点至6.25%。印尼央行行长佩里·瓦尔吉约在新闻发布会上表示，此次提高利率是为了加强印尼盾的稳定性，以应对全球风险恶化的可能性。今年以来，印尼盾对美元贬值约5％左右。

对于印尼央行试图通过加息来稳汇率的做法，分析师普遍不看好。他们表示，提高利率短期内可能有助于遏制印尼盾继续贬值，但长期看不足以刺激印尼盾升值。一方面，印尼盾的走势仍取决于美联储的降息预期，另一方面，能否吸引外资才是决定印尼盾走势的关键。

在东南亚制造业重镇越南，货币贬值同样在加剧。截至5月9日中午，1美元约兑换25445越南盾，较去年末跌了4.6%。据越南当地金融机构透露，3月时，越南央行为力挺越南盾抛售了价值5亿-7亿美元的外汇，使得该国的外汇储备规模降至890亿美元。

值得一提的是，在亚洲多国货币贬值时，人民币走势相对坚挺。在离岸人民币市场，年初至今，美元对人民币基本在7.16-7.28的区间窄幅波动。中国人民银行货币政策委员会2024年第一季度例会公告指出，“坚决对顺周期行为予以纠偏，坚决防范汇率超调风险，防止形成单边一致性预期并自我强化”。

对于本轮亚洲货币贬值的持续时间，分析师认为，这将受各国经济基本面、央行货币政策、以及美联储政策的影响。对于新一轮金融危机是否已经出现，他们认为，本次亚洲货币虽然集体贬值，但幅度小于1997年金融危机的程度，短期内尚未达到危机的程度。

汇管信息科技研究院副院长赵庆明同样对界面新闻说，鉴于目前亚洲各国经济基本稳定，发生金融危机的可能性很小。以日本为例，其宏观基本面良好，甚至超过了欧元区。

华泰证券分析师易峘在近期的研报中强调，美联储是否得以今年开启降息周期、尤其是美国4-5月的通胀数据如何表现，将是影响日元汇率的重要因素。

今年以来，美国经济有所放缓，但通胀指标接连超预期，令美联储对降息前景犹豫不决。

5月1日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5.25%至5.5%之间不变，同时自6月起放缓资产负债表缩减速度。在分析师看来，美联储缩减量化紧缩规模，可以被视为一定程度的货币宽松，巩固了人们对年底前利率可能会更低的预期。

5月3日，美国劳动部公布的4月非农就业人数大幅低于预期，消息发布后，市场预测的美联储年内降息次数从4月末的1次增加到2次。投资者普遍预计美联储9月降息至少25个基点，12月再次降息至少25个基点。

（记者刘晨光对本文章亦有贡献）

新闻译文：

Reporter Chen Shenglong

In the recent May Day holiday, Japan, which is at the end of the cherry blossom season, has become one of the most popular destinations for Chinese tourists to travel abroad.

Affected by the depreciation of the Japanese yen, the number of foreign tourists visiting Japan continues to increase. according to data from the Japan National Tourism Administration, the total consumption of tourists visiting Japan in the first quarter reached 175.05 billion yen (approximately RMB 81.9 billion), setting a new historical high for a single quarter. Among them, tourists from Mexico, the Philippines, Spain and the United States increased the most compared with the same period of 2019 before the COVID-19 epidemic.

The weak yen has greatly increased tourists' desire to purchase luxury goods such as Louis Vuitton, Rolex, and Chanel, as well as their consumption in high-end hotels and restaurants. According to Agence France Presse, in Tokyo, a handbag priced around $4430 was priced at $6250 five years ago. Tourists can also deduct 10% of the consumption tax by presenting their passports. In addition, advanced medical technology also attracts overseas patients to seek treatment in Japan.

In addition to boosting service industries such as tourism, the weakening of the yen has made Japanese exports more competitive, thereby increasing the profits of export enterprises; For foreign investors, stocks of Japanese companies have also become cheaper. However, if the yen continues to depreciate, it may lead to an increase in the cost of living for residents, thereby curbing consumer desire and gradually damaging the Japanese economy.

Due to resource scarcity, the world's fourth largest economy is also one of the most import dependent countries, with 90% of its energy and over 60% of its food relying on overseas supply. Japanese economists and government officials have recently issued consecutive warnings that a significant depreciation of the yen may push up inflation, and they should be wary of excessive fluctuations in the Japanese currency exchange rate.

On April 29th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar briefly fell below 160 yen per dollar, reaching a 34 year low before quickly returning below 160 yen. Market speculation suggests that the Bank of Japan has supported the yen exchange rate by buying yen and selling the US dollar.

This speculation has been confirmed to some extent. On May 8th, Tokyo Television quoted anonymous officials as saying that the Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market twice last week. According to data from the Bank of Japan's current account, Huatai Securities predicts that the scale of this round of intervention may reach $60 billion, accounting for approximately 4.5% of the country's foreign exchange reserves.

On May 8th, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda changed his previous attitude towards a "weak yen" during a parliamentary meeting. He stated that as companies become more inclined to pass on the cost of price hikes to consumers, the possibility of a weak yen having an impact on inflation is greater than before. The Bank of Japan will take countermeasures based on the volatility of the exchange rate and inflation.

Finance Minister Toshiichi Suzuki, who attended the parliamentary meeting together, also stated that the authorities are ready to deal with excessive volatility in the currency market. In his view, the impact of the depreciation of the yen on rising food and energy prices is much greater than the risk of geopolitical conflict. Once the price increase offsets the significant wage increase achieved by both labor and management in March this year, it will disrupt the wage price virtuous cycle pursued by the Japanese government.

Analysts believe that the exchange of 160 yen per US dollar has become the latest bottom line for the Japanese government, and any signs of a breakthrough will prompt intervention. However, against the backdrop of a strong US dollar, they are skeptical about the effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's intervention. As of the afternoon of May 9th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has gradually approached 156 yen to 1 US dollar.

Bai Xue, senior Vice director of Research and Development at Oriental Jincheng, told Interface News that considering the large interest rate spread between the United States and Japan, the short-term reversal of US Japan bond carry trades is not easy, and the scale of short selling the Japanese yen is relatively large, which means that the cost of intervening in the exchange rate is also high. The intervention measures of the Japanese authorities can only prevent disorderly depreciation of the yen by raising the cost of shorting the yen, but it is difficult to reverse the trend of yen depreciation in the short term.

She further explained that on the one hand, the current Japanese economy is still relatively weak, and the sustainability of inflation is questionable. In this context, the Bank of Japan's future policy stance will still be biased, and even if interest rates are raised, it will maintain a cautious pace of "taking small steps slowly", which has limited impact on boosting the yen.

On the other hand, Bai Xue stated that against the backdrop of continuous higher than expected inflation in the United States, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut have significantly cooled compared to before. The first interest rate cut may be delayed until after September, and the magnitude of the cut has also significantly narrowed. This means that the US dollar will remain strong in the short term, and non US currencies including the Japanese yen will remain relatively weak.

Japan is not the only country facing the dilemma of currency depreciation. Since the beginning of the year, almost all major Asian currencies have been depreciating against the US dollar.

The Türkiye lira can be regarded as the "sibling" of the yen. So far this year, both of them have fallen by about 10% against the dollar. According to official Japanese data cited by Asahi Shimbun, due to the depreciation of the yen, only 1.22 million Japanese people went abroad in March this year, which is only 63% of the same period in 2019. Türkiye is one of the few destinations that can "pick up bargains".

On April 24th, Indonesia, the largest economy in ASEAN, raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%. Bank of Indonesia Governor Perry Varjiyo stated at a press conference that the interest rate hike is aimed at strengthening the stability of the Indonesian rupiah and addressing the possibility of global risk deterioration. Since the beginning of this year, the Indonesian rupiah has depreciated by about 5% against the US dollar.

Analysts are generally not optimistic about the Indonesian central bank's attempt to stabilize the exchange rate by raising interest rates. They said that raising interest rates may help curb the continued depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah in the short term, but in the long run it is not enough to stimulate its appreciation. On the one hand, the trend of the Indonesian rupiah still depends on the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts. On the other hand, whether it can attract foreign investment is the key to determining the trend of the Indonesian rupiah.

In Vietnam, a manufacturing hub in Southeast Asia, currency depreciation is also intensifying. As of noon on May 9th, 1 US dollar was about 25445 Vietnamese dong, a decrease of 4.6% from the end of last year. According to local financial institutions in Vietnam, in March, the Vietnamese central bank supported the Vietnamese dong by selling foreign exchange worth 500-70 million US dollars, reducing the country's foreign exchange reserves to 89 billion US dollars.

It is worth mentioning that during the devaluation of currencies in many Asian countries, the trend of the renminbi has remained relatively strong. In the offshore renminbi market, the US dollar has fluctuated narrowly against the renminbi in the range of 7.16-7.28 since the beginning of the year. The announcement of the first quarter meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2024 stated that "we will resolutely rectify pro cyclical behavior, prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot, and prevent the formation of unilateral consistency expectations and self strengthening.".

Analysts believe that the duration of this round of Asian currency depreciation will be influenced by the economic fundamentals of various countries, central bank monetary policies, and Federal Reserve policies. Regarding whether a new round of financial crisis has emerged, they believe that although the Asian currencies have collectively depreciated, the magnitude is smaller than that of the 1997 financial crisis and has not yet reached the level of crisis in the short term.

Zhao Qingming, Vice president of Huiguan Information Technology Research Institute, also told Interface News that given the basic stability of Asian economies, the possibility of a financial crisis is very low. Taking Japan as an example, its macro fundamentals are good, even surpassing those of the eurozone.

Huatai Securities analyst Yi Mou emphasized in a recent research report that whether the Federal Reserve can initiate a rate cutting cycle this year, especially how the US inflation data from April to May will perform, will be an important factor affecting the Japanese yen exchange rate.

Since the beginning of this year, the US economy has slowed down, but inflation indicators have consistently exceeded expectations, making the Federal Reserve hesitant about the prospect of interest rate cuts.

On May 1st, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5%, while slowing down the pace of balance sheet reduction starting from June. In the view of analysts, the Federal Reserve's reduction in quantitative tightening can be seen as a certain degree of monetary easing, consolidating people's expectations that interest rates may be lower before the end of the year.

On May 3rd, the US department of Labor announced that the number of non farm payroll jobs in April was significantly lower than expected. After the news was released, the market forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year increased from one at the end of April to two. Investors generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points in September and another rate cut of at least 25 basis points in December.

(Reporter Liu Chenguang also contributed to this article)

重点词汇

• 出境游 outbound tour

• 目的地 destination ; dest

• 日元贬值 Yen Depreciation ; devaluation of yen

• 国家旅游局 National Tourism Administration

• 数据显示 data display ; data suggest ; data presentation

• 一季度 the first quarter

• 路易威登 Louis Vuitton ; LVMH ; LV

• 劳力士 Rolex ; Rolexes ; Rolex oyster

• 香奈儿 Chanel ; Coco Chanel ; Gabrielle Chanel

• 高级酒店 Hotel Supreme ; hotel ; Premium Hotel ; Luxury hotels

句子成分分析：

[On May1st],the Federal Reserve announced | that it would keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged 

[between 5.25% and 5.5%], || while slowing down the pace (of balance sheet reduction starting [from June]).

句子语法结构详解：

* announced 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* keep 为谓语，采用一般过去将来时。
* unchanged 为形容词作宾语补足语(即构成复合宾语)。
* while 为连词，引导状语从句。
* slowing 为现在分词。
* starting 为现在分词，作后置定语。
* would 为情态动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子成分分析：

[In the view (of analysts)],the Federal Reserve's reduction (in quantitative tightening) can be seen [as a certain degree 

(of monetary easing)], consolidating people's expectations (that interest rates may be lower [before the end (of the year)]).

句子语法结构详解：

(seen 为 see 的过去分词。lower 为 low 的比较级形式)

* tightening 为动名词，作介词宾语。
* 第1个 be 为助动词。
* seen 为谓语，采用被动语态。
* easing 为动名词，作介词宾语。
* consolidating 为现在分词，作状语。
* that 为连词，引导同位语从句。
* 第2个 be 为系动词作谓语。
* low 为形容词作表语。
* can, may 为情态动词。Reserve's, people's 为名词所有格。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

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